Paying the Bills with Hills – A Scientific Report.
Introduction
For many years, the adage ‘hills pay the bills’ has been the second most used training/racing advice given to cyclists. It’s only just narrowly beaten by ‘turn your number 13 upside down bro, it’ll counter the bad luck.’
For 2021, the Townsville Cycle Club committee were met with the challenge of testing these two commonly used phrases. Once they realised they couldn’t have two number thirteens compete at once, one rider having their number upside down and one with their number the right way up, they decided to test the hill theory.
‘Hills pay the bills’ can be defined as: training for cycling events with the inclusion of hill repetitions to the weekly program will increase your chances of success in your targeted events.
Aim
The aim of the experiment is to test whether those who have strong cycling climbing abilities will achieve positive General Classification results in tour racing.
Hypothesis
If hills pay the bills then those who are stronger climbers will win GC due to the adage says so, therefore, no hills lead to debt.
Apparatus
- 23 x A Grade Men
- 4 x A Grade Women
- 16 x B Grade Men
- 25 x C Grade Men
- 6 x C Grade Women
- 11 x D Grade Men
- 10 x D Grade Women
- 12 x Juniors
Total: 107 riders on the start line (10 scratched seniors, 4 scratched juniors due to unforeseeable circumstances)
- 1 x Prologue course
- 1 x Road Race course of varying distance for grade relevance
- 1 x Criterium circuit.
- 1 x Hill Climb ITT.
Methodology
- Send cyclists within their designated grades on a three stage + prologue tour in Townsville.
- Conduct these stages in two days.
- Determine General Classification standings in an aggregate time system.
- Offer bonus seconds towards aggregate time reduction at Intermediate Sprints, KOM/QOM locations, and stage finish result.
- Offer bonus points towards an overall Sprint and KOM/QOM Champion in addition to the time reduction bonuses.
- Begin the Tour with a flat, 6.7km prologue.
- Send riders across 100km (MA), 80km (WA, MB) and 40km (WC, MC, WD, MD) undulating road races.
- Conduct a 40 minute (MA, WA, BM) and 20 minute (WC, MC, WD, MD) criteriums.
- Finish the tour with a 2.55km Hill Climb ITT (av. Gradient, 7%).
- Record results at the completion of each stage in the following classifications:
– Stage Result
– General Classification
– Sprint Championship
– KOM/QOM Championship
Results
Full results linked in Appendix. This is a summary of results, comparing the eventual GC winner in relation to the GC leader at the end of each stage. If the eventual GC winner was leading at the end of any given stage, their lead to next best placed rider is shown.
Prologue
A Grade Men
|
GC position |
Name |
Time gap |
|
Leader |
Joseph Perkins |
+0 |
|
Eventual GC Winner (4th) |
Ben Lawes |
+10 seconds |
B Grade Men
|
GC position |
Name |
Time gap |
|
Leader |
Hamish Wright |
+0 |
|
Eventual GC Winner (4th) |
Jonathan Entriken |
+46 seconds |
C Grade Men
|
GC position |
Name |
Time gap |
|
Leader |
Greg Hutton |
+0 |
|
Eventual GC Winner (8th) |
Jarrod Fife |
+19 seconds |
D Grade Men
|
GC position |
Name |
Time gap |
|
Leader |
Mario Romeo |
+0 |
|
Eventual GC Winner (5th) |
David Knight |
+25 seconds |
A Grade Women
|
GC position |
Name |
Time gap |
|
Leader |
Ruth Corset |
+0 |
|
Next Best GC |
Stephanie Corset |
+27 seconds |
C Grade Women
|
GC position |
Name |
Time gap |
|
Leader |
Tracy Falbo |
+0 |
|
Next Best GC |
Amanda Doolan |
+13 seconds |
|
GC position |
Name |
Time gap |
|
Leader |
Nikki Kerswell |
+0 |
|
Eventual GC Winner (3rd) |
Bianca Grillo |
+27 seconds |
Stage 1
A Grade Men
|
GC position |
Name |
Time gap |
|
Leader |
Kyle Marwood |
+0 |
|
Eventual GC Winner (3rd) |
Ben Lawes |
+10 seconds |
B Grade Men
|
GC position |
Name |
Time gap |
|
Leader |
Hamish Wright |
+0 |
|
Eventual GC Winner (3rd) |
Jonathan Entriken |
+49 seconds |
C Grade Men
|
GC position |
Name |
Time gap |
|
Leader |
Greg Hutton |
+0 |
|
Eventual GC Winner (7th) |
Jarrod Fife |
+23 seconds |
D Grade Men
|
GC position |
Name |
Time gap |
|
Leader |
James Mort |
+0 |
|
Eventual GC Winner (3rd) |
David Knight |
+11 seconds |
A Grade Women
|
GC position |
Name |
Time gap |
|
Leader |
Ruth Corset |
+0 |
|
Next Best GC |
Stephanie Corset |
+22 seconds |
C Grade Women
|
GC position |
Name |
Time gap |
|
Leader |
Tracy Falbo |
+0 |
|
Next Best GC |
Amanda Doolan |
+16 seconds |
D Grade Women
|
GC position |
Name |
Time gap |
|
Leader |
Nikki Kerswell |
+0 |
|
Eventual GC Winner (2nd) |
Bianca Grillo |
+23 seconds |
Stage 2
A Grade Men
|
GC position |
Name |
Time gap |
|
Leader |
Kyle Marwood |
+0 |
|
Eventual GC Winner (3rd) |
Ben Lawes |
+16 seconds |
B Grade Men
|
GC position |
Name |
Time gap |
|
Leader |
Hamish Wright |
+0 |
|
Eventual GC Winner (2nd) |
Jonathan Entriken |
+57 seconds |
C Grade Men
|
GC position |
Name |
Time gap |
|
Leader |
Greg Hutton |
+0 |
|
Eventual GC Winner (7th) |
Jarrod Fife |
+24 seconds |
D Grade Men
|
GC position |
Name |
Time gap |
|
Leader |
James Mort |
+0 |
|
Eventual GC Winner (3rd) |
David Knight |
+19 seconds |
A Grade Women
|
GC position |
Name |
Time gap |
|
Leader |
Ruth Corset |
+0 |
|
Next Best GC |
Stephanie Corset |
+19 seconds |
C Grade Women
|
GC position |
Name |
Time gap |
|
Leader |
Tracy Falbo |
+0 |
|
Next Best GC |
Amanda Doolan |
+15 seconds |
D Grade Women
|
GC position |
Name |
Time gap |
|
Leader |
Bianca Grillo |
+0 |
|
Next Best GC |
Rone Thompson |
+1 minute, 09 seconds |
Stage 3
A Grade Men
|
GC position |
Name |
Time gap |
|
First |
Ben Lawes |
+0 |
|
Second |
Joseph Perkins |
+13 seconds |
|
Leader after prologue |
‘’ |
‘’ |
B Grade Men
|
GC position |
Name |
Time gap |
|
First |
Jonathan Entriken |
+0 |
|
Second |
Jack Pemberton |
+42 seconds |
|
Leader after prologue (4th) |
Hamish Wright |
+1 minute, 12 seconds |
C Grade Men
|
GC position |
Name |
Time gap |
|
First |
Jarrod Fife |
+0 |
|
Second |
Brendon Mausulf |
+24 seconds |
|
Leader after prologue (11th) |
Greg Hutton |
+1 minute, 57 seconds |
D Grade Men
|
GC position |
Name |
Time gap |
|
First |
David Knight |
+0 |
|
Second |
James Mort |
+2 minutes, 07 seconds |
|
Leader after prologue (4th) |
Mario Romeo |
+3 minutes, 16 seconds |
A Grade Women
|
GC position |
Name |
Time gap |
|
First |
Ruth Corset |
+0 |
|
Second |
Stephanie Corset |
+1 minute, 14 seconds |
C Grade Women
|
GC position |
Name |
Time gap |
|
First |
Tracy Falbo |
+0 |
|
Second |
Amanda Doolan |
+57 seconds |
D Grade Women
|
GC position |
Name |
Time gap |
|
First |
Bianca Grillo |
+0 |
|
Second |
Rone Thompson |
+1 minute, 02 seconds |
Discussion
There was a final GC change for every men’s grade, and every women’s grade remained the same. Notably, riders came from as far down as 7th on the GC standings to take the red jersey.
Despite no GC change in the women’s grades, time gaps were extended in Women’s A and Women’s C. The time gap was reduced in D Grade Women however, only by seven seconds.
Analysing the final GC standings is not the only tool available for us to test the hypothesis.
Referring to the results in the appendix, it can be shown that each GC winner also won the KOM/QOM classification.
The only exception is C Grade Men, where the GC winner finished third in the KOM Championship. The eventual KOM Winner for C Grade however, rocketed from 10th overall to 4th overall in the GC standings.
The points allocated to these KOM/QOM standings also received contribution from the Ormes Project Solutions Stage 1 Road Race the day prior.
All was not lost for the GC leaders leading in to the final stage, as most walked away with the green jersey as Sprint Champion.
After further analysis of the results however, we can determine that an individual’s GC hopes cannot rest solely on their climbing ability.
The results identify several riders who’s prologue results may have handicapped their chances of winning GC too much.
Conclusion
The Castle Hill ITT delivered a thrilling end to the GC battles across the Men’s grades for the Tiny Mountain Brewery Tour of the North. It also indicated the strength of the GC leaders from the Women’s Grades, to capitalise on their form and extend their final GC leads.
From the final GC results and further KOM/QOM, Sprint Champion and individual stage result analysis, we can determine that the tested hypothesis is in fact true; hills do pay the bills.
Limitations and Further Research
The Townsville Cycle Club committee will conduct their internal review of the event to identify limitations, however, rider feedback will be appreciated via a survey to riders coming shortly to their email inbox.
This experiment has identified areas for further research. This includes the significance of FTP training and ITT specialty, as the results indicated average prologue performances limited the GC gains a hill climber could have achieved on the final stage.
This identifies a new line of experimentation, what supplementary training efforts to climbing hills positively impact GC hopes?
Appendix
Figure 1: Tiny Mountain Brewery Tour of the North Results: